The rebound came from oil and rate relief, not from risk disappearing.
The core chain remains oil -> inflation expectations -> Treasury yields -> tech and AI valuation elasticity. NVDA beat expectations, but the cautious after-hours reaction shows the bar is already high.
1. Equity repairS&P 500 +1.1%, Dow +1.3%, Nasdaq +1.5%. The rally was helped by lower oil and the 10-year yield moving below 4.60%.
2. Hawkish policy tailApril FOMC minutes said further tightening may be needed if inflation stays above 2%.
3. AI semis return to valuation constraintsNVDA beat expectations, but the after-hours reaction was cautious. The market has shifted from “beat or not” to “can the beat keep lifting expectations?”
4. Trading watchWatch 10Y/30Y yields, whether oil rebounds, and whether NVDA post-earnings trading turns into sell-the-news rotation.